Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 34.182190 36.791144 39.638510 43.002767 46.903979 51.329896 5.679689e+01
2025-09-28 29.971583 33.297470 37.146067 42.009682 48.117094 55.719651 6.623241e+01
2025-10-05 28.677973 32.610329 37.365473 43.702795 52.209705 63.719699 8.150277e+01
2025-10-12 27.398370 31.701430 37.082004 44.560634 55.170485 70.620487 9.717479e+01
2025-10-19 26.288949 30.848126 36.707680 45.146922 57.717463 77.318247 1.148400e+02
2025-10-26 25.233657 29.947892 36.144364 45.339337 59.628316 83.345792 1.338756e+02
2025-11-02 24.054394 28.783735 35.102876 44.690955 60.083101 86.943021 1.497130e+02
2025-11-09 22.890566 27.559921 33.876511 43.625403 59.678844 88.851465 1.627039e+02
2025-11-16 21.906512 26.521295 32.834257 42.730845 59.419063 90.950962 1.775854e+02
2025-11-23 21.121991 25.712888 32.064026 42.179596 59.661243 94.094583 1.979550e+02
2025-11-30 20.787345 25.507446 32.144529 42.965520 62.372306 103.176807 2.478253e+02
2025-12-07 20.159277 24.854374 31.521186 42.546622 62.782345 107.172522 2.840100e+02
2025-12-14 19.369712 23.965233 30.538458 41.526466 62.053316 108.610657 3.135612e+02
2025-12-21 18.651357 23.152472 29.634825 40.581344 61.379583 110.122239 3.486939e+02
2025-12-28 18.605144 23.303390 30.197933 42.174366 66.056662 127.805209 5.713003e+02
2026-01-04 18.374831 23.170221 30.307876 42.979586 69.239550 143.064301 9.767094e+02
2026-01-11 18.103215 22.960863 30.281057 43.529616 71.962634 158.639741 2.089091e+03
2026-01-18 17.772633 22.647369 30.067171 43.710046 73.863618 172.663658 7.959029e+03
2026-01-25 17.305862 22.109706 29.462302 43.101890 73.758023 178.613573 4.790549e+06
2026-02-01 16.789026 21.479357 28.679783 42.101529 72.546900 179.229801 NaN
2026-02-08 16.330106 20.924284 28.000422 41.260816 71.649776 181.096897 NaN
2026-02-15 15.956329 20.488825 27.502028 40.742343 71.525959 186.875778 NaN
2026-02-22 15.835767 20.438194 27.638891 41.481444 74.839771 213.537946 NaN